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Portions relating to text, i18n, jquery and jqueryui are Copyright jQuery Foundation and other contributors, Portions relating to json are Copyright (c) 2015 Miller Medeiros Portions relating to Intl are Copyright (c) 2013 Andy Earnshaw Portions relating to handlebars are Copyright (C) 2011-2016 by Yehuda Katz Moreover, if any of these issues prove temporary, then Autodesk could win back the business that management previously expected to generate.The following components are licensed under MIT license: That said, Autodesk certainly isn't the only company that's seen a lowering of near-term expectations due to supply-chain issues and raw-material inflation. It creates a level of uncertainty around which, rightly or wrongly, the market doesn't like. The shortfall in billings relative to expectations meant management had to cut fiscal 2022 guidance and alert the market to the risks around the 2023 targets.įrankly, it's the last thing investors wanted to hear, given the ongoing debate around its 2023 FCF target and the fact that fiscal 2024 FCF will probably dip.
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What's going wrong?ĭigging into the details of the third quarter, Clifford acknowledged that billings "fell short of our expectations." CEO Andrew Anagnost put it down to the impacts of supply-chain disruptions and inflationary pressures on Autodesk's customers, combined with a global labor shortage and unfavorable exchange-rate movements.
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That was followed by a further reduction to $1.42 billion to $1.46 billion in the recent earnings report.ĭuring the third-quarter earnings call, CFO Debbie Clifford said management continues to "target $2.4 billion of free cash flow in fiscal '23 in constant currency because we believe the current macro headwinds we're seeing are transient." However, she also noted that "if the growth deceleration and strengthened dollar continue through next year, we could see potential risk to that target of about $100 million to $200 million based on what we know today." However, the fiscal 2023 target looked even tougher to achieve after management lowered its full-year 2022 FCF guidance to $1.5 billion to $1.575 billion in August on the second-quarter earnings presentation. That's fair enough but looks aggressive considering FCF would have to increase by $750 million to $825 million to hit the 2022 target. For example, the company started the year with management guiding toward FCF of $1.575 billion to $1.65 billion in fiscal 2022, rising to the aforementioned $2.4 billion in fiscal 2023.
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The problem with Autodesk's 2023 guidance is it has always looked aggressive.